Princeton, NJ--forty-four per cent of registered voters say they would be more inclined to vote for the candidate of the Republican party "and 39% for Barack Obama in the 2012 presidential election, according to Gallup in June update. The current five percentage points for the generic Republican edge is not a statistically significant lead, and neither side held a significant lead at any point to date in 2011.
These results are based on the 9-12 June Gallup Poll. The competitiveness race highlights the fact that Obama's re-election prospects this measure is not much better in maywhen his rating rose to the level of 50%. Now that the rally in support of Obama, essentially ended, President, seems a bit weaker position but still very competitive with its as yet unnamed opponent.
Voters uncertain about what they would do during the election of 2012 is also reflected in the 18% who currently do not have a preference for Obama or Republican.
Poll finds Republican and democratic registered voters to support candidates of their party at similar levels, with independent candidates, breaking more Republican than Obama. Significant 26% of independent voters do not have a preference.
In April and may Gallup updates on preferences of the presidential election of 2012, independent voters were evenly divided between Obama and Republican candidate.
June results bear little relationship to the results of the elections
Gallup asked questions similar to that of the total vote, until the elections of 1992 and 2004, when the incumbent President (George w. Bush and George w. Bush, respectively) is seeking re-election, but his likely opponent was unknown, given that there was no clear front-runner in the Democratic primaries in those years.
In June 1991 and June 2003, the two bushes held wide leads over their shared democratic opponents. In those days, the two Presidents have been very popular with the elder Bush, averaging 72% approval in June 1991 and Bush 62% approval in June 2003. An average of 46% Obama approval during last week's Gallup daily tracking.
The result of the overall vote, either June had been forecasting a possible outcome document; The elder Bush was defeated for re-election and junior Bush won a victory.
In other rounds of the presidential elections, when incumbent seeking re-election were clear favourites for the other party in the nomination, so the Gallup usually pitted incumbent against the enemy in the trial of heat. These results with June a year before the presidential elections were also not really forecasting results. Ronald Reagan trailed by Walter Mondale in 1983 and Bill Clinton faced the five-point deficit to Bob Dole in 1995, but handily won the election, each staff member the following year. In 1979, Reagan held a slim advantage over Jimmy Carter, Reagan, denying Carter for a second term in the elections of 1980.
At the time of these interviews were conducted, Reagan (45%) and Clinton (47%) approval ratings are now Obama 46%. Carter was significantly lower, at 29% of the energy crisis in the summer of 1979.
The Effects Of
In the months leading up to the election of the President's preference can be changed long before elections can be seen on the current political environment, but their relationship to the results of possible elections shows how much of this environment. If the elections will be held today, Obama appears to be a tough fight for re-election with a fairly specific Division registered voters preferences between the President and a Republican General.
Irrespective of which put the Republicans if national conditions will improve, as was the case with the 1983, 1984 and 1995-1996, Obama easily won re-election. If they do not, as happened between 1979 and 1980, or worse, as happened in 1991 and 1992, he can be prone to win who appoint Republicans.
For more information about the Gallup Survey methodology www.gallup.comin the visit.
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